The points average Newcastle United need to return to the promised land of European football

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From Tino Asprilla’s hat-trick against Barcelona to Craig Bellamy giving Newcastle a Champions League lifeline at Feyenoord. From Papiss Cissé giving the Magpies the opener at Benfica and Didier Drogba breaking black and white hearts, there have been many magical nights in Europe for the Toon Army.

Those nights are remembered with fond and magical memories, with relegation, survival offers and the general mediocrity served up to supporters in the decade that followed. by Alan Pardew Newcastle finished with 65 points in 2011/12, narrowly missing out on Champions League football by goal difference.

2012/13 was the last time the Magpies played in Europe and therefore it makes sense to use that season as a marker to calculate the points average needed for the Magpies to return to the promised land. Eddie Howe and his coaching staff – along with last season’s takeover – have fans dreaming of returning to the Continent once again.

READ MORE: Eddie Howe selection index as Newcastle focus on Carabao Cup with strong squad expected

The Toons have been one of the Premier League’s in-form sides this year, and despite all the pundit talk of a return to Europe, Newcastle fans would be more than happy with a first half. Pep Guardiola even went so far as to launch the Magpies in the title racebut those of Tyneside are reluctant to get carried away so far.

With each passing week and each positive result, a return to Europe seems more likely. After the victory at Southampton, the Magpies’ winning streak now stretches to four games in a row, with them unbeaten since the 2-1 defeat at Liverpool in August.

So, can Newcastle be considered true European contenders and what should we keep in mind? ChronicleLive has averaged over the past ten seasons among the top seven clubs in English football – with the top four qualifying for the Champions League, two qualifying for the Europa League and the Europa Conference League spot going to the winner of the Carabao Cup.

Manchester City have dominated this tournament in recent years, with Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United having won it over the past decade. These four teams finished in the top four in lifting the trophy, meaning the club finishing in seventh place would qualify for the Europa Conference League.

Our findings assume that a club in the top six wins the Carabao Cup, freeing up seventh place for the Europa Conference League.

One look at the table is enough to excite Newcastle United supporters and looking at the average points needed to finish in Europe will do nothing to dampen that enthusiasm. So lets crunch the numbers.

Europa Conference League

Over the past decade, the average number of points needed to finish seventh and last in Europe – with the caveat that a team in the top six wins the tournament – is 60 points.

Howe’s side are almost halfway to that total, and they could well hit the 30-point mark with a win over Chelsea in St. James Park next week. The points-per-game average needed to finish seventh would be 1.58 points-per-game.

It’s fair to say that the black and white stalwarts would take any European football after battling relegation for so long and simply securing their Premier League status. Burnley’s 54 points in 2017/18 were the lowest number needed to finish seventh in the past decade, while Manchester United’s 64 points in 2013/14 were the highest.

Europa League

United hearts were broken in Portugal in 2012/13 when Portuguese side Benfica won the quarter-final 4-2 on aggregate to knock Alan Pardew’s side out of the Europa League. At the time, very few thought it would be their last European tournament appearance for nearly a decade, but years of underfunding and underperformance would see the club relegated to the Championship and further years of disappointment. .

For Newcastle to guarantee themselves a place in the Europa League, they would need to be close to the 70 point mark, averaging 1.85 points per game. The margins are so thin at the top of the Premier League that only one point separates fourth from fifth in terms of average position.

The highest number of points in fifth place over the past decade was Arsenal’s 75 in 2016/17, with Leicester City’s lowest of 62 in 2019/20. Of course, the Magpies could finish sixth and qualify for the Europa League.

To finish sixth, they would need an average point total of around 1.68 points per game, or 64 points on average. The 58 points Manchester United racked up last season was the lowest points tally needed in the last decade, while the Devils also share the highest points tally to finish fifth with Spurs on 69 points from 2016 /17 and 2013/14 respectively.

Champions League

The Holy Grail of European football is unquestionably the Champions League. Once regulars in the competition, the Magpies haven’t played in the tournament since 2003/04 – when Sir Bobby Robson took the Toon to the third qualifying round, where they were eliminated by Partizan Belgrade on penalties.

Newcastle are on course to finish with 73 points if they continue their current trajectory, enough to see them snatch the last Champions League spot, compared to recent seasons. In only three of the last ten campaigns has a team finished fourth with more than 73 points.

The Magpies’ current average of 1.93 points per game would be enough to see them finish in fourth place. Of course, there are still plenty of games left in the campaign, with two-thirds of the season remaining to be played when the season resumes after the Winter World Cup break.

Manchester City in 2015/16 and Chelsea in 2019/20 both finished fourth with a minimum of 66 points. However, Arsenal in 2013/14 finished with 79 points which was a record for the last ten seasons.

Here’s a look back at the top seven over the past decade and the points it took to make the hotly contested European places:

Premier League top 7 in 2012/13

  1. Manchester United 89
  2. Manchester City 78
  3. Chelsea 75
  4. Arsenal 73
  5. Tottenham 72
  6. Everton 63
  7. Liverpool 61

Premier League top 7 in 2013/14

  1. Manchester City 86
  2. Liverpool 84
  3. Chelsea 82
  4. Arsenal 79
  5. Everton 72
  6. Tottenham 69
  7. Manchester United 64

Premier League top 7 in 2014/15

  1. Chelsea 87
  2. Manchester City 79
  3. Arsenal 75
  4. Manchester United 70
  5. Tottenham 64
  6. Liverpool 62
  7. Southampton 60

Premier League top 7 in 2015/16

  1. Leicester City 81
  2. Arsenal 71
  3. Tottenham 70
  4. Manchester City 66
  5. Manchester United 66
  6. Southampton 63
  7. West Ham 62

Premier League top 7 in 2016/17

  1. Chelsea 93
  2. Tottenham 86
  3. Manchester City 78
  4. Liverpool 76
  5. Arsenal 75
  6. Manchester United 69
  7. Everton 61

Premier League top 7 in 2017/18

  1. Manchester City 100
  2. Manchester United 81
  3. Tottenham 77
  4. Liverpool 75
  5. Chelsea 70
  6. Arsenal 63
  7. Burnley 54

Premier League top 7 in 2018/19

  1. Manchester City 98
  2. Liverpool 97
  3. Chelsea 72
  4. Tottenham 71
  5. Arsenal 70
  6. Manchester United 66
  7. Wolves 57

Premier League top 7 in 2019/20

  1. Liverpool 99
  2. Manchester City 81
  3. Manchester United 66
  4. Chelsea 66
  5. Leicester 62
  6. Tottenham 59
  7. Wolves 59

The Premier League’s top seven in 2020/21

  1. Manchester City 86
  2. Manchester United 74
  3. Liverpool 69
  4. Chelsea 67
  5. Leicester 66
  6. West Ham 65
  7. Tottenham 62

The Premier League’s top seven in 2021/22

  1. Manchester City 93
  2. Liverpool 92
  3. Chelsea 74
  4. Tottenham 71
  5. Arsenal 69
  6. Manchester United 58
  7. West Ham 56

Premier League top seven average by position

  1. 91 dots
  2. 82 dots
  3. 77 dots
  4. 71 dots
  5. 70 dots
  6. 64 dots
  7. 60 dots

*Average position is rounded to the nearest whole number

Average Premier League points per game needed to finish in position

  1. 2.39 points per game
  2. 2.16 points per game
  3. 2.03 points per game
  4. 1.87 points per game
  5. 1.84 points per game
  6. 1.68 points per game
  7. 1.58 points per game

* Average points per game is calculated using the average whole numbers above.


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